The p(doom) database · person
David Sirota’s p(doom)
>10%
In their words
David Sirota (Screenwriter, Don't Look Up; journalist, The Lever) put their p(doom) at >10% (p(doom), as asked on Doom Debates), on a podcast on Apr 7, 2026.
My P(Doom) is way higher than 10%.
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
No upper bound given.
In context
Among media in the database (34 people), the median is 10%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.