The p(doom) database · person
Median Human (@FlavrSavr)’s p(doom)
75%
In their words
Median Human (@FlavrSavr) (Co-founder of Wikipedia in Macedonian (@wikipedia_mk), 'Butlerian moderate') put their p(doom) at 75%, on X on Dec 11, 2023.
My p(doom) is 75%
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
In context
Among independent in the database (63 people), the median is 5%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.