The p(doom) database · person
Liam Robins’s p(doom)
17.42%
In their words
Liam Robins (Forecaster and writer) put their p(doom) at 17.42% (existential catastrophe from AI, by 2100), (forum) on Aug 6, 2026.
My inside-view P(doom) is now 42.22%. With a 60% linear weight on superforecasters, that brings my all-things-considered P(doom) to 17.42%.
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Up from 3.38% in June 2025.
Every number on the record
| Date | p(doom) | Scope | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 6, 2026 | 17.42% | existential catastrophe from AI · by 2100 | forum |
| Jun 12, 2025 | 2.76% | extinction or unrecoverable collapse · by 2040 | forum |
| Jun 12, 2025 | 3.38% | p(doom), as asked on Doom Debates | podcast |
In context
Among media in the database (34 people), the median is 10%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.