The p(doom) database · person
Andrew Critch’s p(doom)
~85%
In their words
Andrew Critch (Founder, Encultured; ex-CHAI) put their p(doom) at ~85% (humanity does not survive the AI transition: ~35% loss-of-control extinction plus ~50% gradual 'industrial dehumanization', to ~2050), (forum) on Oct 12, 2024.
I also currently think there's around a 15% chance that humanity will survive through the development of artificial intelligence. [...] I think there's around an 85% chance that we will not survive the transition.
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
The 85% cited on Doom Debates traces to this post.
In context
Among safety orgs in the database (28 people), the median is 50%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.