The p(doom) database · person
Toby Ord’s p(doom)
10%
In their words
Toby Ord (Philosopher, Oxford; author of The Precipice) put their p(doom) at 10% (existential catastrophe from unaligned AI, next 100 years), (book) on 2020-03.
1 in 10
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
From The Precipice; in 2024 said the estimates are rounded to the nearest factor of 10 and none have moved far.
In context
Among academics in the database (22 people), the median is 15%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.