The p(doom) database · person
Carl Feynman’s p(doom)
43%
In their words
Carl Feynman (AI engineer) put their p(doom) at 43% (human extinction), on a podcast on Jul 4, 2025.
43%. 43% P(Doom) means I have... What is that? 57%.
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Says it was a little higher previously; things improved as more people noticed the problem.
In context
Among building AI in the database (31 people), the median is 0.5%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.