The p(doom) database · person
Jesse Hoogland’s p(doom)
60–80%+
In their words
Jesse Hoogland (Researcher, singular learning theory / developmental interpretability) put their p(doom) at 60–80%+ (doom from AI), on a podcast on May 7, 2023.
I'm not one of those total doomers who think there's a 99% chance of doom. … On a good day, like coin flip odds, maybe 60% odds of doom. [On a bad day?] 80% plus.
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Range reflects 'good day' 60% vs 'bad day' 80%+.
In context
Among academics in the database (22 people), the median is 15%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.