The p(doom) database · person
Robert Wright’s p(doom)
4–5%
In their words
Robert Wright (Author and journalist, Nonzero) put their p(doom) at 4–5% (no modern humans living decent lives at all, within 100 years), on a podcast on Jun 23, 2026.
Mm, I don't know, 4 or 5%, which is high for something like that, right?
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
For a broader 'suffering' dystopia within 100 years: "I wish I could say less than 50%, but I'm not sure I can."
In context
Among media in the database (34 people), the median is 10%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.