The p(doom) database · person
Greg Colbourn’s p(doom)
~90%
In their words
Greg Colbourn (Founder of Moratorium House and CEEALAR (EA Hotel); PauseAI advocate) put their p(doom) at ~90%, on X on Jul 4, 2025.
I think p(doom) is only ~90%
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Said in a thread about Yampolskiy's p(doom|ASI); the remaining ~10% is simulation/aliens-type 'deus ex machina'.
Every number on the record
| Date | p(doom) | Scope | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 4, 2025 | ~90% | p(doom) | x |
| May 16, 2025 | ~60% | p(doom) | x |
| Oct 31, 2023 | ~50% | p(doom), overall | x |
| Oct 19, 2023 | ~90% | p(doom | AGI) · AGI 0-5 years away | x |
In context
Among safety orgs in the database (28 people), the median is 50%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.