The p(doom) database · person
Basil (@LinkofSunshine)’s p(doom)
~1%
In their words
Basil (@LinkofSunshine) (Pseudonymous ML engineer on X (~50k followers)) put their p(doom) at ~1%, on X on Sep 10, 2026.
My P(doom) is like 1%. Obviously that’s enough to take things very seriously
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Established pseudonym.
In context
Among building AI in the database (31 people), the median is 0.5%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.