The p(doom) database · person
Jey Grayson’s p(doom)
90%
In their words
Jey Grayson (Street Fighter grandmaster) put their p(doom) at 90% (p(doom) given ASI emerges), on X on Sep 20, 2026.
My p-doom for ASI emergece is at 90%!
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Conditional on artificial superintelligence emerging. Reply to Eliezer Yudkowsky.
Every number on the record
| Date | p(doom) | Scope | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | 90% | p(doom) given ASI emerges | x |
| Oct 29, 2025 | 99.1% | p(doom) given ASI emergence | x |
| Jun 26, 2025 | 70% | p(doom) | x |
In context
Among independent in the database (63 people), the median is 5%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.