The p(doom) database · person
Seán Ó hÉigeartaigh’s p(doom)
<50%
In their words
Seán Ó hÉigeartaigh (Programme director at the University of Cambridge; researches AI and emerging-tech risks) put their p(doom) at <50%, on X on Mar 11, 2026.
My p(doom)'s always been lower than 0.5
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Given as a fraction (0.5 = 50%). His 'facetious' caveat refers to a separate joke, not the number.
In context
Among academics in the database (22 people), the median is 15%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.