The p(doom) database · person
Adam Holter’s p(doom)
0%
In their words
Adam Holter (AI writer on X) put their p(doom) at 0%, on X on Sep 9, 2026.
my P(Doom) is 0%
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Explains on Sept 12 that 0% doesn't mean it's impossible or needs no work (x.com/AdamHoltererer/status/2098808544187285887).
In context
Among media in the database (34 people), the median is 10%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.