The p(doom) database · asked and declined
Pepe Cerezo’s p(doom)
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What they said
Pepe Cerezo was asked for a p(doom) on the record (Oct 18, 2026) and did not give a number.
¡La que queramos! … No creo que debamos entrar en el juego de si hay un 10, 20 o 30% de probabilidades de que se extinga la humanidad. … Y, además, no lo sabe nadie.
Asked "What probability do you think there is that AI kills all humans in the next decade?" Translation: "Whatever we want! … I don't think we should play the game of whether there's a 10, 20 or 30% chance humanity goes extinct. … And besides, nobody knows." (20minutos)
Why this is here
The database records refusals as well as numbers. A refusal is not a number, so it never counts toward any median. If Pepe Cerezo states a number in public, it gets a row. What p(doom) means, and the case against it.