The p(doom) database · person
Praful Mathur’s p(doom)
0
In their words
Praful Mathur (Founder (dog-translation collar startup)) put their p(doom) at 0 (p(doom), as ending life), on X on Sep 22, 2026.
My p(doom) is 0, p(harm) is 1 which are not the same.
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
In context
Among independent in the database (63 people), the median is 5%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.