The p(doom) database · person
Holden Karnofsky’s p(doom)
10–90%
In their words
Holden Karnofsky (Co-founder, Open Philanthropy) put their p(doom) at 10–90% (AI takeover, nearcast: transformative AI developed very soon), (forum) on Aug 29, 2022.
I don't currently have much sympathy for someone who's highly confident that AI takeover would or would not happen (that is, for anyone who thinks the odds of AI takeover in this nearcast are under 10% or over 90%).
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
A stated plausible band for a hypothetical scenario, not a point estimate.
In context
Among safety orgs in the database (28 people), the median is 50%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.