The p(doom) database · person
Vitalik Buterin’s p(doom)
12%
In their words
Vitalik Buterin (Co-founder, Ethereum) put their p(doom) at 12% (mostly pre-2050, mostly before 2050), on a podcast on Aug 12, 2025.
About 12% right now.
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Was 15–16% at the start of 2025 and ~10% earlier. Extinction by 2050 specifically: at least 9%.
Every number on the record
| Date | p(doom) | Scope | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 12, 2025 | 12% | mostly pre-2050 · mostly before 2050 | podcast |
| Jul 26, 2024 | 8–9% | terrible outcome from AI, like extinction | podcast |
| Nov 27, 2023 | 10% | existential risk from AI | x |
In context
Among independent in the database (63 people), the median is 5%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.