The p(doom) database · person
David Veksler’s p(doom)
50%
In their words
David Veksler (Bitcoin advocate, writer) put their p(doom) at 50% (near-term human extinction from misaligned AI, near-term), on X on Aug 19, 2025.
My p-doom (probability of near-term human extinction from misaligned AI) is 50%.
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Would be 90%+ if not a moral realist.
In context
Among independent in the database (63 people), the median is 5%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.