The p(doom) database · person
Eli Lifland’s p(doom)
~25%
In their words
Eli Lifland (AI Futures Project; co-author, AI 2027) put their p(doom) at ~25% (extinction; misaligned AI takeover ~50%), in an article on Apr 10, 2025.
Roughly 25% on extinction, which is a subset of roughly 50% on misaligned takeover.
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
ControlAI interview during the AI 2027 media round.
Every number on the record
| Date | p(doom) | Scope | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 10, 2025 | ~25% | extinction; misaligned AI takeover ~50% | article |
| Feb 1, 2023 | 35–40% | existential catastrophe from AI · by 2070 | forum |
In context
Among safety orgs in the database (28 people), the median is 50%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.