The p(doom) database · person
Charlie Sykes’s p(doom)
>10%
In their words
Charlie Sykes (Political commentator; former editor, The Bulwark) put their p(doom) at >10% (AI catastrophe; explicitly borrows Coxon and Hubinger's framing), in an article on Sep 18, 2026.
I would put my AI P(doom) percentage at >10%, because I'm cribbing my notes from Jacob Coxin's warning last week.
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Substack post. Misspells Coxon as 'Coxin'.
In context
Among media in the database (34 people), the median is 10%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.