The p(doom) database · person
prerat’s p(doom)
50%
In their words
prerat (Pseudonymous poster on X (~13k followers)) put their p(doom) at 50%, on X on Sep 3, 2026.
Look my p(doom) is 50% and I think it's crazy to be confident either way
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Established pseudonym. Also wants an anti-RSI treaty.
In context
Among independent in the database (63 people), the median is 5%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.