The p(doom) database · person
Avalon Warren’s p(doom)
33%
In their words
Avalon Warren (PlzDontKillUs) put their p(doom) at 33% (p(doom), as asked on Doom Debates), on a podcast on Aug 26, 2026.
My P(Doom)'s somewhere between... I think I would wanna go 33.
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
In context
Among safety orgs in the database (28 people), the median is 50%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.