The p(doom) database · person
Louis Berman’s p(doom)
≈100%
In their words
Louis Berman (Former tech CTO; AI x-risk activist) put their p(doom) at ≈100% (p(doom), as asked on Doom Debates, eventually), on a podcast on Aug 28, 2025.
I'm saying basically it is P(100). Roman Yampolskiy is off by a rounding error.
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Also: "P(doom) in less than five years, I think is easily P(50)." Concedes ~2% non-doom under pressure.
In context
Among independent in the database (63 people), the median is 5%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.