The p(doom) database · person
Anatoly Karlin’s p(doom)
~30%
In their words
Anatoly Karlin (Transhumanist writer) put their p(doom) at ~30%, on X on Nov 28, 2023.
My p(doom) has gone up from 1-2% to perhaps 30% this past year
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Up from 1–2% a year earlier.
In context
Among independent in the database (63 people), the median is 5%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.