Casey Hart’s p(doom)
In their words
Casey Hart (philosopher and ontologist (formerly Cycorp, Amazon, Ford)) put their p(doom) at <1% (humanity extinct or nearly extinct because AI takes over, 2050), on a podcast on Sep 23, 2026.
And for that, I’m below 1%. How much below 1%? I don’t know how to say whether it’s 0.1 versus 0.01 versus — I haven’t thought any more about that. But it’s below 1%.
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Doom Debates, 'Will AI Kill Everyone by 2050?', transcript at 00:25:44. Also: 'Maybe if you talk to me in 10 years, I’ll update from 0.5% to 5%.'
In context
Among independent in the database (63 people), the median is 5%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.