The p(doom) database · person
Luke Muehlhauser’s p(doom)
>5%
In their words
Luke Muehlhauser (AI governance and policy at Coefficient Giving (formerly Open Philanthropy)) put their p(doom) at >5%, on X on Sep 4, 2024.
my p(doom) is a lot higher than 5%
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Lower bound only.
In context
Among safety orgs in the database (28 people), the median is 50%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.