Richard Socher’s p(doom)
In their words
Richard Socher (CEO, Recursive; founder, You.com; formerly chief scientist, Salesforce) put their p(doom) at 0 (AI existentially wiping out humanity), on video on Oct 13, 2026.
The p(doom) probability of existentially wiping out humanity is zero from AI.
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Fortune AI Weekly (Jeremy Kahn and Bea Nolan), asked how likely the existential-risk scenarios are; calls them "so unrealistic that they're like borderline ridiculous." Clip posted by Fortune Oct 14 and reposted by Socher. Full episode: youtube.com/watch?v=nutfdSHvLZI.
In context
Among building AI in the database (37 people), the median is 0.5%. Across all 233 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.