The p(doom) database · person
Will MacAskill’s p(doom)
1–10%
In their words
Will MacAskill (Senior research fellow, Forethought) put their p(doom) at 1–10% (existential risk from AI), on a podcast on Mar 11, 2025.
I'm still on the more optimistic end: 1% to 10% — that's optimistic nowadays, but that's what my chance of existential risk from AI is.
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Up from the 3% in his 2022 book.
Every number on the record
| Date | p(doom) | Scope | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11, 2025 | 1–10% | existential risk from AI | podcast |
| Aug 15, 2022 | 3% | misaligned AI takeover · this century | podcast |
In context
Among safety orgs in the database (28 people), the median is 50%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.