The p(doom) database · person
Gil Mark’s p(doom)
1% or less
In their words
Gil Mark (Head of generative AI products, LinkedIn) put their p(doom) at 1% or less (p(doom) as asked on Doom Debates), on a podcast on Feb 10, 2025.
1% or less.
Source · not yet re-checked against the primary source.
Auto-transcript mixes speakers; the host repeats the number back.
In context
Among building AI in the database (31 people), the median is 0.5%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.