The p(doom) database · person
Katja Grace’s p(doom)
10–90%
In their words
Katja Grace (Co-founder and lead researcher, AI Impacts) put their p(doom) at 10–90% (human extinction from AI), in an article on Mar 11, 2024.
given my deep confusion and uncertainty about this—which I think nearly everyone has, at least everyone who's being honest [...] between ten and ninety per cent.
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
To The New Yorker. Wider than her ≈7% of 2022.
Every number on the record
| Date | p(doom) | Scope | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11, 2024 | 10–90% | human extinction from AI | article |
| Sep 16, 2022 | ≈7% | AI destroys the world | podcast |
In context
Among safety orgs in the database (28 people), the median is 50%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.