The p(doom) database · person
Guillaume Verdon’s p(doom)
≈0%
In their words
Guillaume Verdon (Founder, Extropic; e/acc co-founder) put their p(doom) at ≈0% (p(doom) from ASI), on X on Oct 31, 2024.
commie govt is the leading term in my p(doom) estimator, and ASI is ~0
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Previously in declined (Lex Fridman, 2023). Says government, not ASI, is the leading term.
In context
Among building AI in the database (31 people), the median is 0.5%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.