The p(doom) database · person
Stephen Casper’s p(doom)
5–10%
In their words
Stephen Casper (AI safety researcher, MIT; UK AISI) put their p(doom) at 5–10% (p(doom), as asked on Doom Debates), on a podcast on Jun 10, 2026.
I think my P(Doom) lies somewhere between 5% and 10%
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
In context
Among academics in the database (22 people), the median is 15%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.