The p(doom) database · person
Ted Sanders’s p(doom)
≈0%
In their words
Ted Sanders (Member of technical staff, OpenAI) put their p(doom) at ≈0% (AI kills all humans, next decade), on X on Sep 10, 2026.
i fully fund my 401k and i think there's essentially zero chance AI kills all humans in the next decade.
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
If wrong, "probably because I underestimate recursive self improvement."
In context
Among frontier labs in the database (20 people), the median is 12.5%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.