The p(doom) database · person
Henry Shevlin’s p(doom)
~15%
In their words
Henry Shevlin (Philosopher and AI ethicist, Google DeepMind; Leverhulme CFI, Cambridge) put their p(doom) at ~15%, on X on Nov 12, 2023.
I'm also around 15%
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
In context
Among frontier labs in the database (20 people), the median is 12.5%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.