The p(doom) database · person
Dave Gilbert’s p(doom)
1%
In their words
Dave Gilbert (Technologist) put their p(doom) at 1% (p(doom) for unaligned AI), on X on Jun 12, 2024.
My P(doom) for unaligned AI is 1%
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Separately gives P(totalitarianism | government controls AI) = 99%.
In context
Among independent in the database (63 people), the median is 5%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.