The p(doom) database · person
Kevin Roose’s p(doom)
5%
In their words
Kevin Roose (Tech columnist, The New York Times; co-host, Hard Fork) put their p(doom) at 5% (AI turns on us and does catastrophic harm), on a podcast on May 26, 2023.
one in twenty chance that AI turns on us and does catastrophic harm
Source · not yet re-checked against the primary source.
Reported secondhand; NYT transcript not read, may be a paraphrase.
In context
Among media in the database (34 people), the median is 10%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.