bioshok (有路翔太)’s p(doom)
In their words
bioshok (有路翔太) (CEO / co-representative, AGI Hub (Japan); AI-alignment commentator on X (@bioshok3, ~30k followers)) put their p(doom) at 30–40% (overall p(doom) from AI, including the chance that regulation / a development pause happens (AGI Hub's own summary calls it a 総合値, all-things-considered)), on video on Aug 7, 2026.
So to explain: my P(doom) is roughly in the 30s percent overall. Um. Yeah, as an overall P(doom), about 30 to 40 percent.
Original: じゃあまあ説明しますと、 だから僕のPドゥームはだいたいオーバーオールで三十パーセント台って感じですかね。で。うん。まあ全体的なPドゥームだから三十から四十パーセントぐらいで。
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
CEO of AGI Hub (Japan). Said at the start of a public 6-hour debate; quote checked against AGI Hub's published transcript (00:27:11). Translation by the maintainer.
In context
Among safety orgs in the database (28 people), the median is 50%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.