The p(doom) database · person
Aaron Bergman’s p(doom)
>50%
In their words
Aaron Bergman (Independent; EA / AI alignment) put their p(doom) at >50%, on X on Jan 22, 2025.
I think my p(doom) is finally above 50%
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
In context
Among independent in the database (63 people), the median is 5%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.