The p(doom) database · person
Vladimir Shakirov’s p(doom)
~20%
In their words
Vladimir Shakirov (Advocate for AGI safety, aging research and cryonics) put their p(doom) at ~20%, on X on Aug 30, 2026.
I had p(Doom) of maybe ~0.6 in ~2015-20, now more like ~0.2. Mostly because so much attention is now given to this topic. But recent Huggingface incident increased my p(Doom) somewhat.
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Given as fractions: ~60% in 2015–20, ~20% now, nudged up by the Hugging Face incident.
In context
Among independent in the database (63 people), the median is 5%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.