The p(doom) database · person
Spencer Schiff’s p(doom)
30–70%
In their words
Spencer Schiff (AI commentator, self-described techno-optimist and accelerationist) put their p(doom) at 30–70% (p(doom) from AI, near-term), on X on Mar 28, 2024.
My assumption has been that near-term p(doom) from AI is somewhere around 30%-70%
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
In context
Among independent in the database (63 people), the median is 5%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.