The p(doom) database · person
Liron Shapira’s p(doom)
50%
In their words
Liron Shapira (Host, Doom Debates) put their p(doom) at 50% (p(doom) from AGI), in an article on Sep 6, 2024.
my P(doom) of 50%
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
In context
Among media in the database (34 people), the median is 10%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.