The p(doom) database · person
Joe Carlsmith’s p(doom)
>10%
In their words
Joe Carlsmith (Senior research analyst, Open Philanthropy) put their p(doom) at >10% (existential catastrophe from misaligned power-seeking AI, by 2070), on a podcast on May 19, 2023.
the number I got there was 5% risk by 2070 ... I've since come to think that that number was too low. ... I threw a note into the report saying I think this number should be higher — I said above 10%
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Revision of the 5% in his 2021 report.
Every number on the record
| Date | p(doom) | Scope | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 19, 2023 | >10% | existential catastrophe from misaligned power-seeking AI · by 2070 | podcast |
| 2022-05 | >10% | existential catastrophe from misaligned power-seeking AI · by 2070 | paper |
In context
Among safety orgs in the database (28 people), the median is 50%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.