The p(doom) database · person
Nate Silver’s p(doom)
5–10%
In their words
Nate Silver (Founder, FiveThirtyEight) put their p(doom) at 5–10% (AI-caused catastrophe), in an article on Jan 27, 2025.
My estimate of p(doom) would be considered high by normal person standards but is well in line with the expert consensus, which puts the chances at 5 to 10 percent.
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Given indirectly: "in line with" the 5–10% consensus rather than a figure of his own.
In context
Among media in the database (34 people), the median is 10%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.