Sarah Hastings-Woodhouse’s p(doom)
In their words
Sarah Hastings-Woodhouse (AI safety writer and researcher; podcaster; formerly digital communications officer, UK AI Security Institute) put their p(doom) at 40–50%, on a podcast on Oct 7, 2026.
I would say it is — and this is just very vibes-based — but something like 40 to 50%.
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Doom Debates, 00:23:39. Breakdown: alignment turns out tractable, another 20% "we regulate and buy ourselves more time", "the other 50% — I think maybe we're just a bit screwed."
In context
Among media in the database (36 people), the median is 10%. Across all 233 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.