The p(doom) database · person
Adi Baradwaj’s p(doom)
~0.01%
In their words
Adi Baradwaj (Founder, Astra Markets; previously Alameda Research and Google) put their p(doom) at ~0.01%, on X on Sep 9, 2026.
I consider my p(doom) to be pretty high at around 0.01% (although it fluctuates day to day)
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Calls 0.01% "pretty high".
In context
Among investors in the database (12 people), the median is 1.5%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.