The p(doom) database · person
David Krueger’s p(doom)
>50%
In their words
David Krueger (Professor, Mila) put their p(doom) at >50% (AI catastrophe / extinction), in an article on Sep 10, 2026.
I think that's more likely than not.
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
In context
Among academics in the database (22 people), the median is 15%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.