The p(doom) database · person
Marc Andreessen’s p(doom)
≈0%
In their words
Marc Andreessen (Co-founder, Andreessen Horowitz) put their p(doom) at ≈0% (AI killing humanity), in an article on Jun 6, 2023.
My view is that the idea that AI will decide to literally kill humanity is a profound category error. AI doesn't want, it doesn't have goals, it doesn't want to kill you, because it's not alive.
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
'Why AI Will Save the World'. No explicit number; dismissal in words. He later added 'p(Doom) = 0' to his X bio (reported by The New Yorker, Mar 2024).
In context
Among investors in the database (12 people), the median is 1.5%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.