The p(doom) database · person
Ben Goertzel’s p(doom)
π%
In their words
Ben Goertzel (AGI researcher; CEO, SingularityNET) put their p(doom) at π% (p(doom), as asked on Doom Debates), on a podcast on May 19, 2026.
I don't think that's a very useful question because we don't have any rational way to estimate that. So if I have to pick a number, I'll come up with π percent.
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Half-joking; says the question isn't useful. Adds that doom without AGI (nukes, bio, nanotech) is higher than LeCun's figure.
In context
Among building AI in the database (31 people), the median is 0.5%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.