The p(doom) database · person
Tom Davidson’s p(doom)
~20%
In their words
Tom Davidson (Senior research analyst, Open Philanthropy) put their p(doom) at ~20% (AI disempowers humanity and takes over control of society and the economy, by 2070), on a podcast on May 5, 2023.
A year ago, I landed at a number that was a bit above 10% for the probability that AI takes over by 2070. ... I think if I redid the exercise today, I'd be close to 20%.
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Up from 'a bit above 10%' the year before.
In context
Among safety orgs in the database (28 people), the median is 50%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.