The p(doom) database · person
tautologer’s p(doom)
~5%
In their words
tautologer (Pseudonymous writer on X (~12k followers)) put their p(doom) at ~5%, on X on Sep 16, 2026.
tbc my p(doom) is like 5%
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Established pseudonym. Says almost all his probability mass is on the non-doom outcomes.
In context
Among independent in the database (63 people), the median is 5%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.